The Playoff Push

As the Preds prepare for Wednesday’s game at Phoenix, Pred-heads are abuzz with the certainty that the Predators are returning to the playoffs after narrowly missing them last season. No longer are Pred-heads watching the scoreboards hoping that matchups will fall a certain way to push the Preds into the post season. In spite of the skepticism of “experts” in the media, a rash of injuries to key personnel throughout the season and a miserable start to the campaign, Nashville has taken care of business themselves and last week clenched a return to the playoffs. As of this post, the Predators sit in 5th place in the West with 98 points and 2 games remaining. They are 4 points behind Phoenix, who have 3 games remaining. A single point earned by Phoenix in any of their last 3 games will ensure that Nashville cannot overtake them for 4th, which is the final position providing home-ice advantage. Nashville does have SOME say in the Coyotes final position since we play them on Wednesday, but considering Phoenix will have another 2 games to earn a point even if Nashville beats them in regulation Wednesday, the likelihood is that Nashville not have home-ice advantage in the opening round. The attention then turns to 4 teams, of which one will be the Predators host in the opening round: the San Jose Sharks, Chicago Blackhawks, Vancouver Canucks or the Phoenix Coyotes.

I’m expecting that if you were to have a survey of Preds fans of which team you would most like to avoid in the opening round, the majority would respond with the San Jose Sharks. And I would be in that majority. I think San Jose is the only one of the 4 teams that could get into the heads of the Preds, having twice eliminated Nashville from first-round playoff action in seasons prior and having completely embarrassed the Predators on March 11 when they scored 6 goals in the 3rd period to rebound from a 4-2 deficit at the 2nd intermission to win 8-5. This season Pekka Rinne is 1-1-0 against San Jose but that comes with a GAA (goals-against average) of 3.88 and a save percentage of .873. The HP Pavilion is widely known as one of the least friendly arenas in the league, housing a loud and energetic crowd to serve as a constant source of inspiration for the players. San Jose does however rely heavily on the Heatley-Marleau-Thornton line for much of its offensive production. Thornton has been oft-criticized for his fading out during the post-season, and it also makes it easier for Trotz to keep his powerhouse defense pairing of Shea Weber and Ryan Suter up against the Sharks’ biggest offensive threat. I think it unlikely that the Preds fall to 8th to have to face San Jose, who appear to be headed for the first seeding in the playoffs. Though if we were to fall, I would certainly fear for the Preds. Expected outcome – Sharks in 5 (again)

If the Sharks end the season in first, nipping at their heels will be the Chicago Blackhawks. I’m actually more comfortable with this matchup than probably most of my peers are, although I would still like to avoid them if possible. Rinne is a 1-2-0 against Chicago this season, but with a healthy 2.35 GAA and a save percentage of .924, which are really pretty good statistics as a goaltender. Chicago will be going into the first round missing their top offensive threat from the blue-line in Brian Campbell who is out with a broken collarbone. Niemi is as solid a goaltending option as they’re going to have this season. However his record only consists of 32 games so it’s hard to have a gauge on how well he will hold up under the increased pressure of the playoffs. A Chicago matchup would keep travel to a minimum and since they’re a Central division opponent, we are familiar enough with them to compete with them night in and night out. Expected outcome – I honestly believe the Preds would win this one, but it’ll take all 7.

My expected outcome for the Preds this season is to land in 6th, solely because Detroit has been as red-hot as the Preds, and the Wings have more games to gain the ground. Whoever lands in 6th will face the rigorous travel to Vancouver, who will grab the three seed. The Preds went 2-2 against the Canucks this year. Luongo has looked completely ordinary this season, particularly since the Olympic break. The Sedin twins are always a handful, and the Canucks physical style of play would wear down on the veterans in our lineup. With Arnott and Dumont having already missed significant portions of the season this year due to injury, a physical game could significantly hamper the Preds aspirations for a deep run. So to me it breaks down to goaltending and durability. Expected outcome – This could go either way, but I’m gonna let my bias come into play. Preds in 6.

It’s been said time and again, but what a story the Coyotes have been. Predicted by EVERYONE to be competing for the first round draft pick this summer. Instead, they’ve challenged for the Pacific division lead all year on the coat tails of goaltender Ilya Bryzgalov. GM Don Maloney has built a team around the goaltending, and finally brought in a coach that can get a team playing with a plan. The team has done a phenomenal job of not allowing all of the off-ice turmoil affect the team’s on-ice product. Having surpassed all expectations, this team is playing with house money. The nothing-to-lose attitude can carry them a long way, but can they hold up under in the pressure cooker that is playoff hockey after it has been away from the desert for so long? I’m excited to see what Shane Doan will be able to do with this squad but just don’t see them having enough grit to stand up to the task. Predicted outcome – Preds in 5.

Who would you rather see? And what are your thoughts on my predictions? Hit the comment feed below.

Big Kev

Random thoughts

The Predators play their last game of this 4-game road trip today against the Los Angeles Kings at the Staples Center. While they aren’t up yet, I dare say that by time you read this you’ll be able to find game previews via On the Forecheck
and Preds on the Glass, and possibly among the other fine Preds bloggers. You could say this is a trip of mixed emotions, though that would typically not be the case. Western California is not a place that is typically kind to Preds, yet the Preds have opportunity to go 2-1 this trip with a win tomorrow, completing the road trip at 3-1 (Win at Atlanta 2-1, loss at San Jose 8-6, win at Anaheim 1-0 so far). Any Preds fan would happily accept 3 out of 4 games won, from a standings perspective. Happily… except that the 8-5 loss to San Jose occurred in a game in which the Predators went into the 2nd intermission holding a 4-2 lead. The Predators that had only lost 3 times this season when leading after 2 periods allowed *6* 3rd period goals. Myself included, Pred-heads everywhere voiced their concerns about this collapse. Certainly it didn’t mean the end of our season, but it was an important 2 points that slipped away and a person could understandably begin to have questions about the mentality of this team. How would the team respond playing less that 24 hours later in an arena that we’ve had frightening little success in? While it couldn’t be said that a complete 180-degree turn was made, the Preds certainly played measurably better, keeping the high-scoring Ducks off the scoresheet, which allowed Shea Weber’s lone 5-on-3 goal to stand as the game-winner.

The future looks bright for Nashville, with the players that are expected to carry us past the Arnott-Dumont-Sullivan era beginning to look more and more comfortable. Looking particularly strong is Colin Wilson, who has played 11 games since being recalled on February 9. In those 11 games, he has scored 4 goals, of which 2 were game-winning goals, and tallying 3 assists while averaging 13:22 time on ice. The majority of this time has been played on the 3rd line, a role not counted on for offensive contributions. The hard work of Wilson has found favor with the coaching staff as well, with Wilson being promoted to first line duties alongside Arnott and Erat, and also finding himself on the 2nd power play unit.

Ellis likely has played himself out of any more starts, which the possible exception being the back-to-back games against Columbus and St. Louis on the 20th and 21st of March. Ellis is not solely to blame for the San Jose loss in the least, but his play in the third was horrible. There’s was no question that the Sharks were going to come out pressing in the third and that the goaltending was going to have to be up to the challenge.

This week NHL disciplinarian Colin Campbell cited the need to follow “precedent” in not suspending Matt Cooke for a vicious and cowardly headshot that has almost certainly ended Marc Savard’s season, and with it, possibly Boston’s playoff aspirations. The league then deviated from the mentality of following precedent set when the War Room in Toronto (which reviews all controversial goals during games) when it allowed Malhotra’s  kicked-in goal to be allowed after having disallowed Boyd’s goal in the period prior, which had incidentally bounced in off a skate, although whether it was Boyd’s or the Sharks defender’s is unknown. I may be wrong, but I am convinced these 2 reviewed goals completely took Nashville out of the game. I can empathize with how disheartening it must have been to the players to have such inconsistency have such a profound effect on their hard work.

If you’ve read to this point, well done. You deserve a cookie. Go get yourself one. And while you’re at it, leave your comments. – Big Kev

No suspension for Cooke,

On October 24th, 2009 the Philadelphia Flyers’ Mike Richards delivered a vicious blindside hit to Florida Panthers’ forward David Booth. The result for Booth was a concussion that held him out of 45 games, as well as the 2010 Winter Olympics, where he would undoubtedly had represent Team USA. The result for Richards… well, he just continued to play games. NHL disciplinarian Colin Campbell, having a son playing for the Panthers, wanted to avoid any suggestion of nepotism, and logically so, so he passed on the responsibility of reviewing the hit for a possible suspension on Richards to NHL Senior Vice President of Hockey Operations Mike Murphy. Murphy foolishly felt this was an unfortunate hockey hit that did not merit a suspension, leaving the majority of journalists and bloggers stunned.

Video of the Richards hit can be found here:

Sunday, Penguins forward Matt Cooke laid a similar hit to the Bruins’ Marc Savard, leaving Savard with a grade 2 concussion. Savard is almost certainly done for this season, and the hockey world watched as we waited to find out how Cooke would be disciplined. Today, we got that answer. Citing the fact that Richards got away with the same hit, so should Cooke.

Video of the Cooke hit can be found here:

The NHL lost an opportunity to rectify a mistake made in October, and instead made it that much harder for us fans of the game to tell the casual sports fan about our game. How can we help the game grow, telling about the skill and athleticism involved when these hits, and the subsequent negligence towards discipline, continually are brought to the forefront? In baby steps forward, the GMs of the league today unanimously approved a proposal to reduce blows to the head and to add a means to levy penalties and suspensions. Someone try to wake up Marc Savard and tell him… but talk quiet… I’m told concussions make you sensitive to sound…

Preds win 2-1 over the Thrashers

Tonight the Preds visited Atlanta and squeaked out a 2-1 victory over the host Thrashers. The Preds got goals in the first from Ryan Suter and Colin Wilson. They then rode on the back of strong play from Dan Ellis in net to keep Atlanta from scoring a goal to tie it after Antropov scored within the first minute of the second period. The Preds played a solid opening period of play, limiting the opponents chances to the outside and pushing back a team that is coached with an emphasis on the attack. After the first intermission the Preds played the majority of game quite lackadaisically, and while the Thrashers didn’t play their way back into the game as much as the score suggests, the Thrashers did generate enough offense to keep things tense. In the end it wasn’t enough and the Preds skated off with a huge 2 point gain in the Western Conference standings.

* According to the official scoresheet, the attendance in Atlanta tonight was just over 11k. If that’s true, then they must have stayed in the lobby. I would ball park it around 7k in attendance and even that feels a bit generous.

*I have to say I wasn’t terribly inspired by any of the even strength lines. The Suter goal came on the team’s first power play opportunity, and the Wilson goal was his own, as he jumped on a defensive gaff while on the forecheck and lifted the puck past Hedberg after an efficient backhand to forehand movement. Hopefully some chemistry is developed soon as this is a critical roadtrip and has the potential to be a season ending run without some wins.

*It was a lot of fun to be a Pred fan in enemy territory tonight. The Preds heads very a very vocal group jeering the opposition and it was very easy to understand what was being said. Very well done. According to tweeters watching from home our taunts were coming through on the TV feed. Well done indeed.

*Up next for your Predators are 3 games in 4 nights, 2 of which are against teams jockeying with the Preds (Ducks and Kings). First on the itinerary are the San Jose Sharks on Thursday.

As always, your comments are definitely encouraged.

Until next time – Big Kev

Welcome to the ice your bipolar Predators

Allow me to lead this post with an apology. This post will probably be a lot more erratic and grammatically mangled than usual. I’m tired. I’m frustrated. I trust you’ll bear with me.

Frustrations abound for the hockey faithful of the Nashville Predators as the team returned from the Olympic break on Tuesday. The team made a statement in goaltending in signing netminder Pekka Rinne to a 2 year extension during the break, and as the team faced off against the Oilers, he nestled between the pipes as the established future of Predator goaltending for at least the next few years. Thanks to goals from newly acquired defenseman Denis Grebeshkov, rookie Colin Wilson, all-star blueliner Shea Weber and captain Jason Arnott, the Preds sloppily squeezed out a 4-3 win in the venue’s debut game as the Bridgestone Arena. Rinne was not tested frequently, and turned aside 22 of 25 shots in the win. Both teams showed a lot of rust in the game, and I felt that the line of Wilson-O’Rielly-Tootoo was the best forward line of the night. Wilson’s game was particularly strong, having a couple of takeaways, playing strong along the walls, winning battles, and one of those little things they call a goal. On Thursday, the Preds wrapped up a nice birthday present for me in the form of a 4-2 win over the Los Angeles Kings, who are one of several teams involved in the race for the final playoff spots in the West. Rinne again got the start, looking more comfortable in net than he had on Tuesday, but once again was not tested heavily, stopping 20 of 22 shots. I’ll be honest, I didn’t get to watch Friday’s game at Detroit. However, from following the tweets of my fellow Pred fans throughout the game, as well as the game recaps provided by much more capable bloggers than myself, it seems as though the only Predator who came to play was goalie Dan Ellis. The Preds were never in this game and lost the game 5-2, as well as Olympic goaltender Shea Weber with what appeared to be an arm or hand injury. Weber has been listed as day-to-day and Cody Franson was recalled to fill his spot on the roster. Today the Preds had a matinee faceoff against the Northeast Division leader Vancouver Canucks. In all 4 games played since returning from the break, the Preds have allowed the first goal, this time allowing Edler to find himself alone in the slot, who quickly wired a wrist shot past Rinne. Arnott struck on the power-play to even the score, and Tootoo brought the Preds into the lead in the 2nd, tapping his own rebound over the shoulder of Luongo. Simple breakdowns allowed Samuelson and Hansen to get 2 goals on Rinne in the 3rd period, and an empty netter allowed the Canucks to leave The Bridge with a 4-2 win and, more importantly, a HUGE 2 points in the standings.

*The goaltending HAS to improve. Rinne had a very strong opening 2 periods tonight, but the 2nd goal was from a terrible angle from distance and was not a quick, surprise shot. Rinne has a history of giving up these bad angle shots. I have wondered about whether his height factors into it. Could he be having to bend over so far to get under the crossbar, that it exposes the area between his body and the post? If so, it is up to him and goaltending coach Mitch Korn to make the necessary adjustments.

*I’m very encouraged by the continued strong play of rookie Colin Wilson. I have been curious if the addition of Boyd would force a numbers game that would result in Wilson being returned to Milwaukee, but Wilson is certainly making a case for himself.

*Everyone wants to know what Trotz has refused to split Hamhuis and Klein, and you can count me among them. This pairing isn’t working. It hasn’t all season.

*Boyd certainly was an encouraging part of tonight’s game, his Predators debut. I am curious about how much of an opportunity he’ll get to succeed. He comes onto a team loaded with 3rd- and 4th-liners, which has actually been handling itself well in terms of secondary scoring, while the top 6 “big guns” continue to struggle. If he continues this strong play, he makes his case to become a fixture in the lineup.

*It’s been a real treat to not see Belak in the lineup. Belak seems a nice guy, but does not provide a contribution to the games, and therefore I label him “useless boob.” I will not change my mind.

*I miss Jan Hlavac. I still think Poile was foolish to let him walk.

*I had the pleasure of bumping into fellow Tweeter @predsaddict for a post-game meal at the Murfreesboro Steak & Shake, though quite by accident. I had a great time discussing the team with her and her friend and look forward to speaking with her again.

I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments section below! Until next time, God bless! – Big Kev

Roster Recap

An amazing series of Olympic games has passed and the NHL returned to action this week, with the Preds having played host twice this week to a couple of teams with the trade-deadline day sandwiched in between the 2 games. The season has gone as I predicted it would back in September, and the Oilers found themselves facing the need to make changes as they prepare to reload, if not rebuild, so Monday they exchanged D Denis Grebeshkov with Nashville for a second-round pick in the upcoming draft. On Tuesday, the Predators placed Ryan Jones on waivers in preparation to send him to Milwaukee, but he was instead picked up by Edmonton and was immediately put to work, facing off against the Blackhawks on Wednesday night. Personally, I don’t think Nashville as a team feels the loss of Jones. I never had a problem with Jones’ game, but his style of play never seemed to mesh with Trotz’s system. I expect he’ll do well in Edmonton which seems to rely a little more on speed and creativity, where Nashville is a little more defensively sound. Wednesday was a record-setting trade deadline day, but Nashville was one of the less active teams with only one trade made. The Preds sent their fourth-round pick to Calgary in exchange for utility forward Dustin Boyd, who has scored 19 points (8g,11a) this season. I believe both trades were calculated decisions toward improving an uncharacteristically poor penalty kill, and thus I was happy to see Preds GM David Poile improving his club where he could. There were a couple of things that I found intriguing about these trades. Grebeshkov does bring with him a $3.1 million price tag for this season, which of course is prorated over these last 6 weeks of the regular season. On its own, this is certainly a manageable pricetag for a top-4 defenseman, even on a small market budget. However, Grebeshkov is a restricted free agent this summer, meaning that if the club intends to extend him, they will likely have to give him a raise. The concern this raises is that it begins to suggest the money that will be needed to keep fellow defenseman Dan Hamhuis on the team. Both Hamhuis and David Poile have expressed a mutual desire to reach an extension to keep him and his family in Music City long term, but I expect that Hamhuis will feel he deserves on par or in excess of Grebeshkov if he remains in house. My curiousity with Boyd is that he is coming into a team that has begun to settle on its 3rd and 4th line players. Just prior to the Olympic break the team decided to recall Colin Wilson and Wilson came to play, convincing the staff to call him back up again as the team was preparing to begin the sprint to the postseason coming out of the Olympic break. I get the feeling that the team is prepared to stay with Wilson for long haul, and the other 3rd and 4th liners around him are established NHLers, save for Hornqvist. The point being none of these players are likely to be going back down to Milwaukee, unless there game falls apart. So where does Boyd fit into the roster? Who rides the pine to create the opening for him? I guess we’ll see tonight when Nashville visits Detroit to face off with the Red Wings, after which I aspire to have a new post for my thoughts on this weeks games.

As always, I look forward to your thoughts and comments. – Big Kev